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Earth's surface materials constitute the basis for life and natural resources. Most of these materials can be catergorized as soft matter, yet a general physical understanding of the ground beneath our feet is still lacking. Here we provide some perspectives. 

Abstract The empirical constitutive modeling framework of rate‐ and state‐dependent friction (RSF) is commonly used to describe the time‐dependent frictional response of fault gouge to perturbations from steady sliding. In a previous study (Ferdowsi & Rubin, 2020), we found that a granular‐physics‐based model of a fault shear zone, with time‐independent properties at the contact scale, reproduces the phenomenology of laboratory rock and gouge friction experiments in velocity‐step and slide‐hold (SH) protocols. A few slide‐hold‐slide (SHS) simulations further suggested that the granular model might outperform current empirical RSF laws in describing laboratory data. Here, we explore the behavior of the same Discrete Element Method (DEM) model in SH and SHS protocols over a wide range of sliding velocities, hold durations, and system stiffnesses, and provide additional support for this view. We find that, similar to laboratory data, the rate of stress decay during SH simulations is in general agreement with the “Slip law” version of the RSF equations, using parameter values determined independently from velocity step tests. During reslides following long hold times, the model, similar to lab data, produces a nearly constant rate of frictional healing with log hold time, with that rate being in the range of ∼0.5 to 1 times the RSF “state evolution” parameterb. We also find that, as in laboratory experiments, the granular layer undergoes log‐time compaction during holds. This is consistent with the traditional understanding of state evolution under the Aging law, even though the associated stress decay is similar to that predicted by the Slip and not the Aging law. 

Abstract Over the last several decades, the study of Earth surface processes has progressed from a descriptive science to an increasingly quantitative one due to advances in theoretical, experimental, and computational geosciences. The importance of geomorphic forecasts has never been greater, as technological development and global climate change threaten to reshape the landscapes that support human societies and natural ecosystems. Here we explore best practices for developing socially relevant forecasts of Earth surface change, a goal we are calling “earthcasting”. We suggest that earthcasts have the following features: they focus on temporal (∼1–∼100 years) and spatial (∼1 m–∼10 km) scales relevant to planning; they are designed with direct involvement of stakeholders and public beneficiaries through the evaluation of the socioeconomic impacts of geomorphic processes; and they generate forecasts that are clearly stated, testable, and include quantitative uncertainties. Earthcasts bridge the gap between Earth surface researchers and decision‐makers, stakeholders, researchers from other disciplines, and the general public. We investigate the defining features of earthcasts and evaluate some specific examples. This paper builds on previous studies of prediction in geomorphology by recommending a roadmap for (a) generating earthcasts, especially those based on modeling; (b) transforming a subset of geomorphic research into earthcasts; and (c) communicating earthcasts beyond the geomorphology research community. Earthcasting exemplifies the social benefit of geomorphology research, and it calls for renewed research efforts toward further understanding the limits of predictability of Earth surface systems and processes, and the uncertainties associated with modeling geomorphic processes and their impacts.